Professor Paul Blackwell
School of Mathematical and Physical Sciences
Professor
+44 114 222 3719
Full contact details
School of Mathematical and Physical Sciences
I7
Hicks Building
Hounsfield Road
葫芦影业
S3 7RH
- Profile
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Prof Blackwell graduated with a BSc in Mathematics from Warwick University (1984). He has worked on forest growth models in the Statistics and Computing Department of the Forestry Commission Research Branch, and he obtained a PhD (1990) from Nottingham University. His main research interests are in Bayesian statistics, inference for stochastic processes, statistical ecology, and other applications including environmental statistics.
- Research interests
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I mainly work in Bayesian statistics; I am interested in the development of new models and methodology, particularly inference for random processes, driven by real applications which are primarily in ecology but also in environmental science, archaeology and other areas. I am also interested in stochastic modelling, statistics and simulation more generally, again often with ecological and environmental applications.
- Publications
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All publications
Journal articles
- . Movement Ecology, 10(1).
- . Scientific Reports, 11(1).
- . Environmetrics.
- . Fish and Fisheries.
- . Biometrics.
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- . Technometrics.
- . Methods in Ecology and Evolution, 10(11), 1894-1907.
- . Biometrics.
- . Methods in Ecology and Evolution.
- . Methods in Ecology and Evolution.
- . Methods in Ecology and Evolution, 10(5), 637-649.
- . Ecology, 100(1).
- . Fish and Fisheries.
- . Ecology and Evolution, 8(14), 7031-7043.
- . PLoS Biology, 15(11).
- . Journal of Agricultural, Biological and Environmental Statistics, 22(3), 373-392.
- . AStA Advances in Statistical Analysis.
- . Methods in Ecology and Evolution, 8(7), 898-898.
- . Statistics and Computing, 26(6), 1137-1146.
- . Biometrics, 72(2), 345-324.
- . Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences, 73(4), 589-597.
- . Methods in Ecology and Evolution, 7(2), 184-195.
- . Marine Policy, 61, 291-302.
- . Geology, 42(10), 875-878.
- . Methods in Ecology and Evolution, 5(2), 190-199.
- . Springer Proceedings in Mathematics and Statistics, 63, 121-125.
- . Ecological Modelling, 255, 29-37.
- . RADIOCARBON, 55(4), 1923-1945.
- . Radiocarbon, 55(4), 1905-1922.
- . Radiocarbon, 55(4), 1869-1887.
- . Radiocarbon, 55(4), 1889-1903.
- . Climate of the Past, 8(6), 1869-1879.
- Bayesian Glaciological Modelling to quantify uncertainties in ice core chronologies. Quaternary Science Reviews.
- . Quaternary Science Reviews, 30(21-22), 2961-2975.
- A BAYESIAN APPROACH TO THE ESTIMATION OF RADIOCARBON CALIBRATION CURVES: THE INTCAL09 METHODOLOGY. RADIOCARBON, 51(4), 1151-1164.
- INTCAL09 AND MARINE09 RADIOCARBON AGE CALIBRATION CURVES, 0-50,000 YEARS CAL BP. RADIOCARBON, 51(4), 1111-1150.
- . BAYESIAN ANAL, 3(2), 225-248.
- . BAYESIAN ANAL, 3(2), 263-268.
- . ECOL MODEL, 207(2-4), 349-355.
- . P NATL ACAD SCI USA, 104(20), 8362-8367.
- Modeling the beta diversity of coral reefs. ECOLOGY, 87(11), 2871-2881.
- . ECOL MODEL, 196(1-2), 131-148.
- . QUATERNARY SCI REV, 25(7-8), 855-862.
- . QUATERNARY SCI REV, 25(5-6), 408-413.
- . Arch Oral Biol, 50(2), 287-291.
- . NATURE, 427(6974), 533-536.
- NotCal04 - Comparison/calibration C-14 records 26-50 cal kyr BP. RADIOCARBON, 46(3), 1225-1238.
- Formal statistical models for estimating radiocarbon calibration curves. RADIOCARBON, 46(3), 1093-1102.
- IntCal04 terrestrial radiocarbon age calibration, 0-26 cal kyr BP. RADIOCARBON, 46(3), 1029-1058.
- Marine04 marine radiocarbon age calibration, 0-26 cal kyr BP. RADIOCARBON, 46(3), 1059-1086.
- SHCal04 Southern Hemisphere calibration, 0-11.0 cal kyr BP. RADIOCARBON, 46(3), 1087-1092.
- Bayesian inference for Markov processes with diffusion and discrete components. BIOMETRIKA, 90(3), 613-627.
- . TRENDS ECOL EVOL, 18(8), 381-382.
- The Late Glacial human reoccupation of north-western Europe: new approaches to space-time modelling. ANTIQUITY, 77(296), 232-240.
- . Advances in Applied Probability, 35(01), 4-26.
- Bayesian analysis of deformed tessellation models. ADV APPL PROBAB, 35(1), 4-26.
- Does the resource dispersion hypothesis explain group living?. TRENDS ECOL EVOL, 17(12), 563-570.
- . J Theor Biol, 217(2), 149-157.
- . Arch Oral Biol, 47(7), 545-554.
- Can landscape-scale characteristics be used to predict plant invasions along rivers?. J BIOGEOGR, 29(4), 535-543.
- Social organization of cooperatively breeding long-tailed tits: kinship and spatial dynamics. J ANIM ECOL, 70(5), 820-830.
- . Biometrics, 57(2), 502-507.
- . Arch Oral Biol, 46(3), 191-199.
- Shapes and sizes of badger territories. OIKOS, 89(2), 392-398.
- Methods for describing and comparing variations in tooth shape. J DENT RES, 79(5), 1206-1206.
- Conditional simulation for moving average processes, with discrete or continuous values. STAT COMPUT, 8(2), 135-144.
- Random diffusion models for animal movement. ECOL MODEL, 100(1-3), 87-102.
- . J Theor Biol, 189(2), 175-181.
- Towards stereochemical and conformational assignment in flexible molecules using NOEs and molecular modelling. J CHEM SOC PERK T 2(9), 1811-1818.
- A RESOURCE-DRIVEN STRATEGY CONFLICT IN 2 DIMENSIONS. J THEOR BIOL, 177(1), 17-28.
- . Statistics and Computing, 4(3), 213-218.
- . Animal Behaviour, 46(4), 821-823.
- . Journal of Applied Probability, 29(04), 814-824.
- . Journal of Applied Probability, 29(4), 814-824.
- . Advances in Applied Probability, 24(01), 221-222.
- . Advances in Applied Probability, 24(1), 221-222.
- . Journal of Theoretical Biology, 148(4), 433-444.
- . Journal of Theoretical Biology, 148(4), 445-468.
- . Mathematical Medicine and Biology, 7(4), 261-279.
- . Forestry, 63(1), 73-91.
- . Forest Ecology and Management, 25(1), 31-58.
- An integrated forest process model: its calibration and its predictive performance.. Research & Development Paper - UK Forestry Commission, 148.
- Joint inference for telemetry and spatial survey data. Ecology.
- . Methods in Ecology and Evolution.
- . Radiocarbon, 1-20.
- . Radiocarbon, 1-43.
- . PLOS Biology, 16(8), e2007047-e2007047.
- . Climate of the Past Discussions, 8(4), 2477-2502.
- . ChemInform, 28(51), no-no.
- The IntCal20 Northern Hemisphere radiocarbon age calibration curve (0-55 kcal BP). Radiocarbon.
Chapters
- , The Contribution of Young Researchers to Bayesian Statistics (pp. 35-39). Springer International Publishing
- , The Contribution of Young Researchers to Bayesian Statistics (pp. 121-125). Springer International Publishing
- John Wiley & Sons, Ltd
- John Wiley & Sons, Ltd
Conference proceedings papers
- . Bayesian Statistics in Action (pp 223-230)
- . Springer Proceedings in Mathematics and Statistics, Vol. 63 (pp 35-39)
- Modelling the role played by aided migration in the dispersal of alien plant species. KEY CONCEPTS IN LANDSCAPE ECOLOGY (pp 320-320)
- Stochastic simulation of ants that forage by expectation. FOURTH EUROPEAN CONFERENCE ON ARTIFICIAL LIFE (pp 531-538)
- Modelling foraging behaviour of ant colonies.. ADVANCES IN ARTIFICIAL LIFE, Vol. 929 (pp 772-783)
Preprints
- , Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory.
- Quantifying uncertainty and dynamical changes in multi-species fishing mortality rates, catches and biomass by combining state-space and mechanistic multi-species models, arXiv.
- Inference in MCMC step selection models, arXiv.
- State-switching continuous-time correlated random walks, arXiv.
- Gaussian process modeling of heterogeneity and discontinuities using Voronoi tessellations, arXiv.
- Multi-model ensembles for ecosystem prediction, arXiv.
- Linking resource selection and step selection models for habitat preferences in animals, arXiv.
- Bayesian inference for multistate `step and turn' animal movement in continuous time, arXiv.
- Bayesian inference for continuous time animal movement based on steps and turns, arXiv.
- Statistical modelling of individual animal movement: an overview of key methods and a discussion of practical challenges, arXiv.
- Modelling group dynamic animal movement, arXiv.
- Research group
- Grants
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Past grants, as Principal Investigator
Daphne Jackson Fellowship DJ Statistical Support for BAS Palaeoclimate Studies BAS Ice Core Annual Layer Counting BAS Past grants, as Coinvestigator
NERC NERC EPSRC The future of the past: A robust framework for the upgrade and development of the international radiocarbon calibration/comparison curves (IntCal) NERC NERC NERC NERC NERC NERC
- Teaching activities
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MAS115 Mathematical Investigation Skills
Links